Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.799717 2.158829 2.562600 3.048955 3.617572 4.259955 5.039225
2026-01-11 1.336394 1.806062 2.391603 3.169927 4.171339 5.409791 7.049826
2026-01-18 1.011747 1.511838 2.191325 3.170332 4.530642 6.337461 8.898884
2026-01-25 0.764762 1.249468 1.959805 3.057254 4.685510 6.982039 10.427221
2026-02-01 0.591241 1.047636 1.763640 2.940643 4.790327 7.538432 11.865944
2026-02-08 0.486034 0.926347 1.660328 2.934580 5.039827 8.310793 13.679204
2026-02-15 0.407344 0.830959 1.577844 2.940897 5.297195 9.108171 15.597373
2026-02-22 0.339100 0.738654 1.482008 2.904426 5.470238 9.778178 17.367609
2026-03-01 0.270887 0.630807 1.337753 2.756121 5.424778 10.073059 18.538687
2026-03-08 0.228306 0.565334 1.260935 2.717641 5.564017 10.686610 20.294191
2026-03-15 0.195408 0.513247 1.200933 2.700532 5.736325 11.368498 22.222714
2026-03-22 0.182493 0.503904 1.227530 2.859820 6.262842 12.736781 25.494705
2026-03-29 0.163682 0.477149 1.213775 2.936644 6.642483 13.881912 28.486951
2026-04-05 0.150318 0.461242 1.221889 3.062018 7.136287 15.292194 32.103852
2026-04-12 0.131290 0.425823 1.178201 3.065060 7.372876 16.221063 34.875835
2026-04-19 0.109368 0.376680 1.092006 2.956201 7.352803 16.631425 36.661813
2026-04-26 0.090911 0.332569 1.009886 2.843340 7.307500 16.981054 38.348967
2026-05-03 0.079683 0.307677 0.973564 2.837535 7.504687 17.854019 41.175015
2026-05-10 0.070417 0.286620 0.943786 2.843686 7.729779 18.805069 44.238214
2026-05-17 0.061069 0.262583 0.900874 2.808318 7.849444 19.533449 46.881930
2026-05-24 0.050052 0.229034 0.822892 2.664482 7.681299 19.598666 48.086086
2026-05-31 0.043397 0.209826 0.785006 2.627166 7.778990 20.279373 50.704568
2026-06-07 0.038105 0.194336 0.755855 2.610574 7.928479 21.093214 53.684885